May 19, 2016
Pitfalls. Peril. Prosperity.
Caroline Newman | Greater Good
The American president’s first year in office historically is a time of both great peril and great opportunity. Many new presidents have faced unexpected foreign affairs crises. The Bay of Pigs crisis, for example, erupted in Cuba shortly after John F. Kennedy took office. The Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks occurred near the end of George W. Bush’s first year. Most presidents have also passed their most significant legislation during year one, when congressional goodwill is at its height. It’s a time for decisive action. And there’s no time to waste.
It is important for this next president to be strategic about what he or she can get done in the first year.
-William Antholis, director of the Miller Center for Public Affairs
The next president faces the daunting challenge of uniting a political system and a public mired in gridlock and stark ideological division. Success won’t come easily. “For the five most recent presidents, the amount of legislation accomplished even in the first year has been declining, because of political polarization,” said William Antholis, director of the Miller Center for Public Affairs. “It is particularly important for this next president to be strategic about what he or she can get done in the first year.”
A series of papers published through mid-2017 addresses key issues the new president will face. Written by scholars from UVA and other top universities, as well as senior officials from previous administrations, these writings are being shared with the candidates, arming them with bipartisan insights they can translate into decisive action.
We know the Oval Office recordings better than any organization in the country. We can go into those conversations and pull out historical lessons.
The Miller Center has plenty of resources to draw upon. Its archives include oral histories for every president since Jimmy Carter, developed from thousands of hours of interviews with former presidents and their top staff. The center is also in the midst of transcribing more than 4,000 hours of previously secret Oval Office recordings made between 1940 and 1973. “We know those recordings better than any organization in the country,” Antholis said. “We can go into those conversations and pull out historical lessons.”
The next president, even if he or she is an ‘outsider’ candidate, will turn to insiders who have been in these situations before.
“The next president, even if he or she is an ‘outsider’ candidate, will turn to insiders who have been in these situations before,” Antholis said. He expects many on the First Year 2017 Advisory Council will become key players in the next administration as the new president seeks advice from those with experience managing the vast federal government. “If you have a vision of where you want to take it, it will only get there if you have a team of people who share your vision and work together in the right kind of organization.” The 12-member, bipartisan council represents a “who’s who” of Washington veterans, with senior staffers from the Obama, Bush, Clinton and Bush Sr. administrations, as well as journalists who have covered the presidency for decades.
As an organization, we are connecting a network and providing a regular service, with unique assets that are nonpartisan and bipartisan.
The first set of essays examines how presidents effectively or ineffectively manage the massive federal government, including concrete recommendations for avoiding failures like FEMA’s mismanagement during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 or the technical difficulties of the Affordable Care Act’s launch. Subsequent sets address national security, the global economy, tax and fiscal policy, race, immigration, infrastructure, science and technology, and presidential communications. On each the Miller Center, in addition to deepening historical scholarship, will serve as a think tank, uniting its many resources to provide new leaders with balanced perspectives.
Pick the President
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